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Company Analysis PepsiCo (PEP)

August 21, 2019 | Uncategorized | No Comments

PepsiCo (PEP) is headquartered in Harrison, NY. It was created in 1965 with the merger of two companies; Pepsi-Cola and Frito-Lay. Since this combination of two notably powerful companies in their own right, PepsiCo has gone on to acquire several more varied and great brands including Tropicana in 1998. Quaker Oats in 2001. Through Quaker Oats, PepsiCo would also acquire ownership of the Gatorade brand as well. Recently, PepsiCo purchased Sodastream at the end of 2018, which produces carbonation products that enable you to make fizzy drinks in your own home. PepsiCo is a major international player with sales in over 200 countries and territories all over the world. Hence, they have divided their business into six major entities; Frito-Lay North America (FLNA), Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA), Latin America (LatAm), Europe and Sub-Saharran Africa (ESSA), and Asia, Middle-East, and North Africa (AMENA).

A number of factors increase the appeal of PEP to a dividend investor including their great array of brands, powerful international exposure, and long history of uninterrupted dividend growth. A large part of PepsiCo’s strength comes from its incredible number of strong performing brands. Some of the more famous brands include; Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Diet Pepsi, Pepsi Max, Mist Twist, Aquafina Water, Tropicana, Lipton Tea, Gatorade, Quaker products, Lay’s Potato Chips, Cheetos, Doritos, Ruffles, Tostitos, and Fritos. From this dominant product line PepsiCo is able to hit several distinct market segments primarily operating in the beverage and salty food sectors. Take note, although PepsiCo does own all these brands which are widely known in the United States there are a number of additional regional brands sold throughout the world which will be unfamilar to the average American investor such as Mirinda, a Spanish created orange drink. Another great benefit of PEP is their global market reach. According to the 2018 Annual report the U.S. market accounted for 57% of net revenue with the rest of the world accounting for the remaining 43%. So although the U.S. market is dominant as can be expected for an American centered corporation, they are still receiving a significant amount of their revenues from unrelated markets all over the world. Digging deeper into these numbers we can also see that food sales accounted for 54% of net revenue with beverages serving up the remaining 46%. What is the most valuable division of PepsiCo you ask? Although your first guess may be North American Beverages (PBNA), you would be incorrect. The correct answer is Frito-Lay (FLNA) which came in with a significant operating profit of 43% for the entire segment. This blows away the next closest North American Beverages out of the water with a still impressive 20%. Another key factor increasing PepsiCo’s allure to a dividend investor is the long history of dividend increases. As of 2018 it was the 46th year in a row, securing PepsiCo a spot at the table of dividend aristocrats. As of the time of the writing of this post PEP is currently paying a dividend of $3.82 yearly, which accounts for a healthy dividend yield of 3%.

We have been over some of the advantages PepsiCo possesses but what about some of the dangers facing them? There are a number of risks currently facing PEP. Changing consumer tastes, changing laws and regulations, unknown political changes and turmoil, risks and opportunities in emerging and developing markets, and any potential supply disruption. The first potential risk facing PEP is nothing new for any company operating in the consumer sphere. Simply put, peoples tastes change over time, and what once was popular with your grandparents may not be well received by millennials or members of generation Z. These trends will never abate but PEP is aware of them and working to bring forth new product lines to appeal to the tastes of the next generation of consumers. Another potential danger facing PEP is changing laws, regulations, and political climates. One section of this is naturally related to taxes. A change in the tax situation domestically or abroad would certainly impose some hardships on PepsiCo and their bottom line. Additionally, something to consider is laws in some cities and states such as Seattle, WA, and California which have banned single use plastic straws. Assuming that plastic straws are only the beginning, one can wonder how new laws could come into effect banning single servings bag of chips or bottles of PepsiCo beverages and the monetary and time cost to devise new and effective measures to counteract these changes. Thankfully for PepsiCo, this isn’t a current or necessarily a pressing problem but it is something to be aware of moving forward for the cautious investor. On the international front, PepsiCo as a truly global company operating in over 200 countries also takes on additional risks from shifting political whims and fortunes across the entire globe. How will the Brexit situation affect Pepsi-Co’s bottom line? What about variances in the exchange rate between currencies in emerging and developing markets such as Mexico, Russia, India, or China? These are complicated questions. Unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball and can not predict the future but it is still important that we consider these possibilities when reviewing any company. Finally, an additional threat facing PepsiCo is any potential disruption in supply of either raw materials or deliveries of finished products. PepsiCo as a large company producing a great variety of products, requires a large amount of raw materials such as water, juices, food products, plastics for packaging, and fuel for operating facilities and delivery vehicles. Some of these such as energy are cyclical markets with ebbs and flows which can benefit or bite any given corporation in any given year based on the going international rate. Others, such as water or food sources can come from limited sources and changing political situations in individual countries and localities. PepsiCo has been successfully navigating these potential risks for decades now and no foreseeable risk currently appears on the horizon, but once again it is necessary that we educate ourselves on potential downsides and disruptions to the businesses we are considering.

Authors note- I am invested and long PEP. I believe their proven business model and additions to their offerings will continue to perform over time and I look forward to collecting the growing dividend income along the way. The views and opinions expressed in this articles are the authors alone, and are offered for informative and discussion purposes only. Please do your own research and due diligence to decide if this is a company that makes sense for your personal portfolio.

Questions? Comments? Have something you would like to see featured? Please write to me @ Reinvested@yahoo.com.

The Altria Group is a mainstay of many dividend investor’s portfolios. It has been around since 1985, when it emerged from a re-branding of the massive Phillip Morris Company, known primarily for their lines of Tobacco products. Their most recognizable brand is Marlboro. Beyond Marlboro, they do own a variety of other famous cigarette brands as well as smokeless tobacco alternatives such as Copenhagen and Skoal. Altria focuses on the domestic U.S. market as opposed to Phillip Morris PM, which oversees international sales and distribution. They are headquartered a brief drive out of Richmond, Virginia, an area which has been associated with tobacco growth and production since the earliest days of the republic and before. The company has also taken an interest in a number of emerging companies expanding their offerings such as Cronos Group focused on cannabinoids and based out of Toronto, Canada. Altria has purchased a whopping 45% stake for the price of 1.8 billion dollars. This purchase grants them access to the emerging and fast growing CBD marketplace as well as the increasingly shifting cannabis marketplace. Juul, based out of San Francisco, CA has seen Altria purchase a significant 35% stake to the tune of $12.8 Billion dollars, is the emerging vaping company with a dominant share of the vaping marketplace and they’re expected to continue their dominance. Finally, Anheuser-Busch Inbev based out of Leuven, Belgium, with a respectable 9.6% ownership stake. Anheuser-Busch Inbev owns hundreds of alcoholic brands throughout the world and mainstay brands such as Budweiser, Corona, and Stella Artois.

There are a number of factors about Altria Group which makes them highly attractive to a dividend income investor. The first and foremost is the exceptional dividend yield. Paying out $3.20 a year or $.80 a quarter for a dividend yield exceeding 6% is phenomenal for any major company, but when paired with Altria’s standing as a dividend aristocrat with 49 years of consecutive dividend increases, it is easy to find something here to love. As of the time of writing 7-25-2019 Altria has a P/E ratio of 15.17 making them about fairly priced in a generally overpriced market. Additionally, there are a number of newer investments and technologies coming into play for Altria showing how they plan to adjust to changing times and consumer tastes. The first of which is the IQOS vaping system. Designed by Phillip Morris initially for the international market this product was recently approved by the FDA for sale in the USA ( FDA approval). By offering a tobacco alternative which has already seen some international success for health conscious individuals, Altria will be sure to continue their dominance solidly in the tobacco sector throughout the foreseeable future. Another exciting addition was the 35% stake in Juul, the up and coming vaping company, which has already grabbed a vast majority of the US market share (Juul marketshare). By diversifying into this venue Altria is ensuring they not only remain relevant with the next generation of smokers but that they will be invested at the forefront of emerging trends in this segment. Yet another exciting acquisition by Altria was Cronos group. Now that Marijuana has been legalized in Canada and as the waves of legalization for both medical and recreational use cascade over the United States, it seems only a matter of time until this can become a dominant sector in the cigarette business. Also on this point, I like the fact that Altria has a long and successful history of lobbying giving them what I feel will be a great toolbox to roll out distribution for cannabinoid products once they eventually become fully legalized in the United States. Finally Altria maintains an interest in Anheuser-Busch Inbev giving them exposure to the related sin stock sector of alcohol. What is one of the most popular times to smoke? After a couple drinks on a night out! Although Altria maintains a minorty stake in Anheuser-Busch, I personally like this position as I feel it offers good synergies with their core focus areas while providing some diversity at the same time in their holdings.

Now, that all sounds well and good but what are some of the downsides for investing in this company or more broadly, this segment of the market? For starters, there is the general downturn in the number of cigarette smokers. This number is projected to increase year over year. I personally believe Altria is diversifying properly, it is certainly important to note and be aware of. Secondly, some investors may have ethical concerns about investing in a tobacco giant like Altria. I personally believe that one of the greatest things about the United States is the freedom that individual adults have to enjoy adult products in their private lives, on a night out or on a break from their work. I believe that will continue to be a mainstay for large segments of the population in one form or another and I encourage individuals to make their own informed decisions about which products they may or may not choose to partake in. Additionally, a potential danger for investors to take note of is the concentration in the US market space. Unlike Phillip Morris which has great international exposure Altria is essentially limited to the United States, placing them in potential risk of additional laws or regulations unilaterally damaging their bottom line. That being said, this is a company with significant branding and lobbying experience which has faced a negative onslaught from both regulators and the media for a long time and has continued to come out on top and reward their shareholders generously along the way.

Authors note- I am invested and long MO. I think their recent downward swing provides a good buying opportunity for the less squeamish investor. The views and opinions expressed in this articles are the authors alone, and are offered for informative and discussion purposes only. Please do your own research and due diligence to decide if this is a company that makes sense for your personal portfolio.

Questions? Comments? Have something you would like to see featured? Please write to me @ Reinvested@yahoo.com.